Mike Fasano: Bowl Predictions 2009
Dec 18, 2009 | By: Random Blogger
Picking against Vegas is tough, tough, tough. Over the years I have found the collective wisdom of the bettors and bookies is tough to buck. You make predictions against the line and end up looking very foolish.
But, to paraphrase Billy Conn, what good is it being Italian if you can’t be stupid.
So, here goes.
The Meineke Bowl
Pittsburgh Panthers (by 3) vs.
North Carolina Tar Heels
This might be one of the best matchups of the entire bowl season. The talented Pitt Panthers versus the sensational defense of North Carolina. The Panthers have been a far more balanced and consistent team but the Tarheels have come up big in big games.
This one will be a barnburner but I pick …
Pittsburgh by 3.
The Emerald Bowl
Boston College Eagles vs.
USC Trojans (by 9)
This is down year for USC who couldn’t even stay in the top 25 much less challenge for the National Championship. BC also struggled, suffering blowout losses to Virginia Tech and Clemson. The two teams had one common opponent – Notre Dame. USC looked anemic against the Irish but won by a touchdown. Boston College lost.
The Trojans are clearly the better team but this year are they really 9 points better?
I don’t think so …
USC by 5.
The Music City Bowl
Kentucky Wildcats vs.
Clemson Tigers (by 7)
Clemson is an underrated team. C.J. Spiller is a sensational athlete who can singlehandedly take control of a game. One the other hand the Tigers will have trouble defending against the Wildcats’ outstanding rushing game.
Both teams have five losses but there is a difference. Clemson plays in the ACC and Kentucky plays in the SEC. To get an idea of what that means, consider their common opponent – SEC member South Carolina. Kentucky lost to the Gamecocks by 2, Clemson lost to them by 17.
The line has Clemson by 7. But this game is about leagues …
Kentucky by 2.
UCLA Bruins (by 4)
Temple Owls
This games is also about leagues but the result might not be the same. To be blunt, it is damn hard to find a good win on the UCLA schedule. To make things worse, the Bruins finished the season getting blown out by USC in what was a bad year for the Trojans.
On the other hand. Al Golden has worked miracles for Temple and the Owls will be pumped to take on UCLA as the climax to ending a 30 year bowl drought.
Temple’s sensational running back Bernard Pierce should return for this game and that is bad news for the Bruins who are okay, but not great against defending the run.
But then again teams coming off long bowl drought often just don’t believe that they can win against established programs. It is something they have to learn. And Temple has an Achilles’ heel, the lack of a passing game to match its running attack.
This one is a tough one to call, but I’ll call it from the heart …
Temple by 2
Champs Sports Bowl
Miami (FL) Hurricanes (by 3) vs.
Wisconsin Badgers
Miami has talent and speed – just not as much of it as it had in it’s glory days.
Wisconsin has an excellent rushing offense and an even better rushing defense.
However, to stop the Hurricanes, Wisconsin needs to stop the pass. They are okay in that department but not great.
This game plays out as follow.
The Badgers use their running game to successfully grind it out against the Hurricanes and they succeed.
The Hurricanes use their speed at wide receiver to get deep on and score quickly against Badgers … and they also succeed.
The game will be decided by who has the ball last.
My bet is that it will be …
Wisconsin by 7.
Chick-fil-a Bowl
Virginia Tech Hokies (by 4) vs.
Tennessee Volunteers
This is a good, solid Virginia Tech team who played a great game against a monstrously strong Alabama team.
On the other hand Tennessee is a good, solid team who (forgetting about Mississippi for a second) played well against a monstrously strong SEC schedule.
Tech’s weak passing game will have fits against the great pass defense of the Volunteers. The Hokies will have to win on the ground and they indeed have the horses to pull that off.
On the other hand the Volunteers have a far more balanced pass and run attack … but they’ll struggle against a defense which is ranked 14th in the nation.
Who will win?
The ACC has lost four straight against the SEC opponents in this bowl.
This year will be no different …
Tennessee by 3.
Gator Bowl
West Virginia Mountaineers (by 3) vs.
Florida State Seminoles
The only reason Florida State is even in this game is as a tribute to Bobby Bowden.
I don’t know about you but if I were going to have a tribute to someone I wouldn’t set them up to get their butt kicked.
That is what this game is about.
West Virginia by 7.
Sugar Bowl
Florida Gators (by 10) vs.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Even Tony Pike will have problems against the number 5 ranked passing defense in the nation. And the Florida offense is good to the point of being overwhelming.
Add to that, an AWOL coach and the result for Cincy will not be pretty.
Florida by 15.
BCS Championship
Texas Longhorns vs.
Alabama Crimson Tide (by 5.5)
Alabama has never beaten the Texas Longhorns.
Ever.
Not during the Bear Bryant years.
Not ever.
And Crimson faithful are hungry for this game.
Alabama is just awesome. They didn’t just beat then number one Florida – they demolished them.
On the other hand Texas struggled mightily against no “O” Nebraska to get to the title game.
You can call this the National Championship Game but actually the real National Championship Game was played between Alabama and Florida.
This “contest” will be “no contest,” just epilogue…
Alabama by 14.
St. Petersburg Bowl
UCF Knights at
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (by 2.5)
In many ways these two teams are similar. Rutgers is ranked 99th nationally in offense. UCF is ranked 83rd.
Both teams rely upon defense to win. Rutgers is ranked 19th overall but UCF is 24th in scoring defense.
UCF has an excellent coach in George O’Leary, the home field advantage and a talented running back in sophomore Brynn Harvey.
Rutgers has far more overall talent, two great freshmen in Sanu and Savage and a greater comfort level in playing in bowl games. The Knights are now going on their fifth straight bowl appearance. UCF has only two in its school’s history.
It’s a hard game to call. There are unpredictables in this game.
Will Tim Brown play?
And the big question…
Will Rutgers come ready to play?
If the answers to both questions are yes – Rutgers will win.
My feeling is that Brown won’t miss his last game for anything and that Schiano has learned from the Syracuse debacle.
Maybe that’s wishful thinking but I’ll call it …
Rutgers by 7.
Updated On: Jan 27, 2010 12:32 PM
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